LSU’s Manship School and the Cook Political Report have surveyed congressional battleground districts nationwide and say Democrats have around a double digit average advantage in races that will likely determine control of the House.
Public Policy Lab Director Mike Henderson says in suburban districts that will likely decide the election, the President is dragging down GOP candidates.
“They break almost two to one for those that say their midterm vote will be at least in part, an expression of opposition to the President.”
Of the 1500 people surveyed, 500 of them came from 69 districts rated as close races by Cook.
Much has been made of a potential “blue wave” of energized Democrats voting en masse in a repudiation of President Donald Trump, but Henderson says their findings indicate the participation gap may not be as big as advertised.
“When it comes to the likelihood of voting, Democrats and Republicans are pretty even. Now that itself is significant because Democrats tend to lag in midterm voting.”
There are 12 million more registered Democrats than Republicans nationwide. Registered Democrats still also hold the lead in Louisiana.
Midterms are notoriously low turnout affairs, but experts from across the political spectrum say the nation’s heightened political fervor over the last two years will likely lead to the highest total participation rates in decades. LSU Professor James Carville says that could lead to some unexpected results.
“It could be the highest turnout since 1970, and if that happens it could create some distortion among different demographics. If that happens then that is going to produce some distortion among different demographics, so, I would stand by because we have a lot of politics to go.”
The survey also indicates most Americans are at least somewhat confident that foreign intervention will not be an issue for the election.