NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updated 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook is now calling for a 90% chance of a below-normal season. NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, Gerry Bell, says a below normal-season is now even more likely than predicted in May when it was at 70%.
"The updated ranges are 6 to 10 named storms of which 1 to 4 are expected to become hurricanes and zero to one are expected to become major hurricanes."
Bell says El Nino is stronger than they originally predicted and is expected to stay throughout the remainder of the hurricane season. He says the atmospheric conditions like strong vertical wind shear come along with El Nino and low sea-surface temperatures are also making for this below average hurricane season.
"El Nino is already affecting wind and rain fall patterns throughout the entire global tropics."
Bell says this seasonal outlook doesn't include landfall predictions. He says even though we're looking at a below average season, it is very possible for tropical storms and big hurricanes to form during El Nino.
"Our preparedness motto is "know your risk, have a plan and be prepared. A great website for preparedness for your readers is Ready.gov."