Slow-moving Tropical Storm Barry has officially formed in the Gulf and is projected to make landfall along the Louisiana coast sometime Saturday morning.
The center of prediction tracks have Barry making landfall somewhere in south-central Louisiana in the Morgan City area around 7AM, but State Climatologist Barry Keim says it’s still highly unpredictable.
“there’s still incredible uncertainty as to where this storm is going to go, and the track guide from the model ranges from landfall in Mississippi to landfall over in the upper Texas coast. That’s pretty remarkable given how close to the coast it currently is.”
The prediction tracks have shift east in the last 12 hours from models that initially showed landfall in southwest Louisiana.
Keim says the system will only be at hurricane one strength winds when it makes landfall, but the biggest concern is storm surge, and rainfall.
“The storm might bring anywhere from 15 to 20 inches of rain to parts of south-central and southeast Louisiana given how slow it is moving.”
Storm surge levels are estimated at between three to six feet along the coast, and up into Lake Ponchartrain.
Keim says tropical storm conditions will set in around Friday night before things take a noticeable turn for the worse Saturday morning along the coast, and that afternoon in the Baton Rouge area.
“Things will be really deteriorating in those afternoon hours, but Saturday afternoon in particular across the I-10/I-12 Corridor could be pretty tricky.”
