Louisiana politicos are keeping a close eye on the legislative contests to see if Republicans can get a 70-seat supermajority in the House. LSU Assistant Professor of Political Communication Mike Henderson says Republicans have a solid opportunity to gain enough seats to override a governor’s veto.
“If recent trends in how our legislative elections have gone, if those hold this year then there is about a little over a one in five chance,” said Henderson.
The winner of the 2019 races will be in the driver’s seat for 2021 redistricting.
Democrats abandoned four of their seats after qualifying, and three former Independent seats have uncontested Republicans. The GOP needs to flip five Dem or Independent seats for the supermajority.
“Republicans have done very well in the Louisiana Legislature flipping these kinds of seats,” said Henderson. “Seats that tend to be in more rural areas, that have more conservative voters, that tend to vote Republicans in other elections.”
Henderson says the four districts to watch are the 18th in Livonia, the 62nd in Jackson, and the 75th in Bogalusa, while keeping Franklin Foil’s old seat, the 70th in Baton Rouge.
Henderson says a supermajority is no guarantee of legislative success, but if Governor Edwards returns to office in 2020 then it’s their best bet to be able to pursue their agenda.
“If the Republicans, who would be the party with the supermajority in that case, if they can hold that block together, they can essentially ignore the governor,” said Henderson.
