Republicans appear to be far more motivated to pack the polls this year than they were in 2015 according to the analysis of the first three days of early voting.
Early voting totals are nearly double what they were four years ago, and JMC Analytics publisher John Couvillon says it’s far more Republican as well.
“By this point in 2015 the early voting electorate was 35% Republican, it’s 42% Republican, as of last night,” says Couvillon.
In 2015 Governor Edwards grabbed 40 percent of the primary vote, while the top three Republicans combined for 57 percent.
Couvillon says if these voter demographics hold Governor Edwards will not be able to avoid a run-off, contrary to what recent polls have shown.
“You have an electorate that thus far is noticeably turning out less Democratic than almost anybody had forecast, that would tend to put Governor Edwards’ numbers more towards the mid-40s,” says Couvillon. JMC’s most recent poll has Edwards sitting at 47 percent.
Couvillon says part of the GOP advantage seems to be a demotivated Democratic base. He says that’s likely due to Edwards’ attempts to appeal to Republicans and a heavy emphasis on winning the primary outright.
“A combination of those two things to me would be a demotivator for a partisan Democrat to want to really go vote because they just don’t really see the need,” says Couvillon.
The last day to vote is Saturday,
October 12th.
