The NOAA Climate Prediction Center predicts another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. Acting NOAA administrator Ben Friedman said between 13 to 20 named storms are expected to form and between six and ten will become hurricanes.
“This includes three to five major hurricanes ranked as categories three, four, or five with top winds of at least 111 miles per hour,” Friedman said
NOAA’s lead season hurricane forecaster Matthew Rosencrans said several factors have been combined for them to predict another active hurricane season.
“Warmer than average sea surface tempatures, weaker trade winds in the Atlantic hurricane main development region as well as weaker verticle wind sheer and an increased West African monsoon,” Rosencrans said.
NOAA said El Nino conditions are currently in the neutral phase. When there’s an El Nino it suppresses tropical activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Rosencrans is concerned about the possibility of a La Nina forming later in the hurricane season.
“It could reinforce those high activity era conditions and increase the likelihood that we could see seasonal activity in the upper ends of our predicted ranges,” Rosencrans said.
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