The tropics have been quiet lately, but NOAA’s climate prediction center still predicts an above-average hurricane season with 15 to 21 named storms. Lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Matthew Rosencrans…
“That range does include seven to 10 possible hurricanes, of those, three to five could become major hurricanes which are hurricanes that reach category three, four, or five.”
The season has already produced five named storms and one hurricane. Rosencrans says the potential return of a La Nina favors even more storm development…
“La Nina is linked to weakening wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic ocean which favors more and stronger Atlantic storms.”
In May, NOAA predicted the 2021 hurricane season would produce 13 to 20 named storms, but now they are calling for as many as 21 named storms. But Rosencrans says that’s not the 30 named storms recorded during the historic 2020 season…
“Sea surfaces temperatures are closer to average across the Atlantic main development region which contributes to our analysis that this season while likely above average, is not likely to be as active as last year.”
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