An International Panel on Climate Change report shows without achieving worldwide carbon neutrally by mid-century average temps in Louisiana’s region will rise six degrees or more from where they were in the period between 1995 and 2014.
The report concluded that even with swift action to reach worldwide carbon neutrality the amount of carbon already in the atmosphere makes it likely that average regional temperatures would still rise another one degree by mid-century. It is estimated that human carbon production has already raised global temperatures about 2 degrees from pre-industrial levels.
The level of temperature increases projected by the end of the century, should neutrality not be achieved, would dramatically alter life in the Bayou State.
Tulane Marshal-Heape Chair of Earth and Environmental Sciences Cynthia Ebinger said that level of temperature increase would have major impacts on the state’s agriculture, and not just crops.
“Think about clams and oysters and some of these other shallow-water animals that we rely on, crawfish, they are going to be impacted as well,” said Ebinger.
The report stated high confidence that even under best-case scenarios the Central North American Region, of which Louisiana sits in the southernmost portion, will see increases in drought while also seeing more extreme precipitation events. There was medium confidence that our region would experience more fire weather and river flooding.
Ebinger said Louisiana is particularly vulnerable to this projected increase in extreme precipitation events due to being on the Gulf.
“The warmer the ocean water, the more evaporation. The more evaporation the greater the moisture content in the atmosphere and the greater the chance of precipitation,” said Ebinger. “If we have warmer water then we are then evaporating more, but we have sluggish storms so the storms will stay in one area over a longer period of time leading to these rapid inundation and flood events.”
Louisiana’s region is expected to see about four feet of sea-level rise by the end of the century under scenarios where carbon use is not curtailed.
Current worldwide policies have the planet on track to see temperatures rise about three and a half degrees from where they are now. Under that projection, heat waves that now hit every decade would be seen once every few years, and the average number of days per year above 95 degrees would increase by 15, while the average number of days per year seeing temps over 104 degrees would increase by eight.
The report has resulted in a wave of “climate nihilism”, but the authors noted there is still a narrow window to avoid the worst-case scenarios outlined by the IPCC. Ebinger said the technology to transition away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy already exists, but governments are not adequately incentivizing its use.
“So in the State of Louisiana we don’t have incentives to go solar in our homes, we don’t have incentives to utilize the existing abandoned well for carbon capture,” said Ebinger who is confident we have the science to avoid the worst-case outcomes. “I would say emphatically that the technology exists.”
The report was compiled using data from 14,000 studies and was approved by 195 countries.
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