Hurricane Laura in 2020
AccuWeather’s predictions for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season calls for 16 to 20 named storms, of which six to eight could become hurricanes, and three to five of those could be major hurricanes. State Climatologist Barry Keim said given that the last two seasons were off the charts predictions for this year still aren’t comforting.
“We could be at the upper end of what we’ve seen over the last 170 years so obviously this is a big deal,” said Keim.
Keim said 14 named storms is the average and in 2021 there were 21 names storms and in 2020 a record-breaking 30 named storms.
La Nina played a significant role in the last two Atlantic Hurricane seasons and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts La Nina will continue to play a starring role this year. Keim said just how long she sticks around is the big mystery.
“The big question is how much gusto does it have, is it going to persist all the way through the season or is it going to basically weaken and go neutral? That’s going to loom large. If it stays potent as a strong La Nina this could be another record-breaking season,” said Keim.
Keim said La Ninas usually doesn’t persist this long and to have this happen three years in a row is unusual.
And La Nina is not the only reason for the prediction of 16 to 20 named storms this season, Keim said sea surface temperatures are already above normal across some of the breeding grounds for storms and things could start brewing even ahead of the season.
“The AccuWeather prediction is that we could probably see another early season storm. When I say early season meaning even before the season starts like in May,” said Keim.
Keim said the AccuWeather forecast is calling for the north-central Gulf Coast, that’s southeastern Texas to the Florida panhandle, to be among the most active area for storms this season.
The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season beings June 1st and ends on November 30th.
Comments