Hurricane Fiona is just the third hurricane and sixth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic season. AccuWeather predicted an above-average season earlier with anywhere from 16 to 20 named storms. State Climatologist Barry Keim said now AccuWeather is calling for a season with only 12 named storms which is considered below normal.
“And right now, they’re the only ones projecting a below-normal season for 2022 and nobody else has made that update. So, this is somewhat interesting from that perspective,” said Keim.
In the spring NOAA forecasted 14 to 21 named storms and Colorado State University predicted 19 names storms, both above average, for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.
Reasons for the revised forecast Keim said is so far, we’ve only had six named storms and we’re past the halfway point in the season. And even though a La Nina is in place along with above-average sea surface temperatures, conditions over the breeding grounds have not been favorable for the formation of storms.
“The air has been dry and stable, and the upper air has been somewhat unfavorable which is unusual during a La Nina year, and it’s just absolutely limited the number of storms that have been able to form this year,” said Keim.
And while Keim said he’s not complaining whatsoever considering the last two seasons and their impact on Louisiana have been extremely harsh, it’s still too soon to say the Bayou State is out of the woods just yet.
“Making a forecast like that is always a dangerous thing, I certainly am not overly optimistic that we will make it through unscathed. So, only time will tell obviously,” said Keim.
Keim said hurricanes have been known to arrive in Louisiana deep into the month of October before.
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