Matt Brown / CC
Early Voting for the November 8th election ends this afternoon, and it looks like low turnout among Louisiana’s black voters. Pollster John Couvillon, with JMC Analytics and Polling in Baton Rouge, says information collected through Saturday (the 29th) indicates only 24-percent of that was by black voters.
He says, “Not just the fact that there is a lagging black voter turnout, but I am actually seeing that there are more Republicans than Democrats that have early voted.”
Couvillon says blacks make up just over 30-percent of Louisiana voters and most are Democrats. Historically, when Democrats have gotten out the vote in Early Voting, it led to victories for their party. In 2008, when Mary Landrieu and Barack Obama won in Louisiana buy big margins, and in 2015 & 2019, when John Bel Edwards won both his terms in office…
“..so what I’m getting at is weak Democratic intensity, which by the way I am also seeing in other states like Georgia and North Carolina.”
Couvillon says when the black early vote slips below 25-percent, Republicans generally win substantially. He also notes that it’s possible we’ll see a surge among black voters when all the mail-in ballots are counted, as that’s become a “thing” since the pandemic made it necessary…
“Before the pandemic, mail-ins represented about 3-percent of the total electorate. since the pandemic started, it has spiked to 15-percent.”
Couvillon says data indicates this could be a bad election cycle for democrat candidates, but he says anything can happen once all the votes are counted. The election is a week from today.
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