Hurricane Laura in 2020
Colorado State University has updated its 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook to predict an even busier season. They’re now calling for 2 more named storms, 1 more hurricane and 1 more major hurricane this season, bringing the predicted total to 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes. Nick Mesa with the CSU Hurricane Forecast Team says the above-average season is due to two factors:
“We’ve never really seen this combination of record-warm temperatures in the Atlantic like we’re seeing now with the combination of a La Niña, or a cooler ENSO period.”
Mesa explains that La Niña helps spur on hurricane-force winds while warmer ocean temperatures provide the metaphorical fuel for the hurricane to intensify.
So far this season, we’ve seen three named storms, one of which was a major hurricane. In fact, Mesa says Beryl, which turned into a major hurricane faster than any other storm, harkens back to Hurricane Emily in 2005.
“When we see storms in the deep tropical Atlantic occurring this early in the season, that’s usually an indicator of a very hyperactive season.”
Mesa stresses that these numbers are a prediction, not a guarantee of how many storms we’ll see this year. Still, he says, this outlook should encourage residents, especially coastal residents, “to be proactive instead of reactive, [to] make sure you have your hurricane preparedness kit in place. And if a storm does threaten your area, make sure you know what to do and listen to the guidance of your local emergency management officials.”
To view Colorado State’s full hurricane forecast for 2024, click here.
Comments