After President Joe Biden dropped out of the Presidential race and Vice President Kamala Harris stepped in, polls are not showing a big shift due to the substitution. John Couvillon of JMC Analytics and Polling says the most recent Trump-Harris polls…
“shows Donald Trump in the lead by 3.5 percentage points which according to a model I have calculates into 326 electoral votes for Donald Trump.”
270 elector voters are needed to be elected president.
Couvillon says not much will change with Harris’ V-P selection either. Usually, V-P nominees don’t help but could certainly hurt the ticket…
“So its basically a case of her having a VP selection who has the sufficient stature to go on the nation stage and debate.”
Couvillon says because of the candidate’s polarization not much is expected to change with the electorate either and the Electoral College is where you can expect the most change…
“With all these shifts going on what’s happening with the swing states or the borderline swing states like say, a Minnesota or New Hampshire.”
Couvillon says by the end of the week, we should begin seeing more accurate polling data reflecting a Trump-Harris Presidential race.
A Reuters poll conducted on July 22nd and 23rd show Harris leading Trump 44% to 42% among registered voters.
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