Senator Bill Cassidy (R) - Louisiana
If a new poll is any indication, Senator Bill Cassidy could be in for a tough re-election campaign.
A new poll by JMC Analytics commissioned by the John Fleming campaign shows the current state treasurer leading Cassidy by 13 points in a head to head matchup, 40 to 27 percent, with the remaining third undecided.
With other nameless candidates offered as an option, Fleming leads Cassidy 29 to 27 percent, with eight percent opting for the “other” option. 36 percent were undecided.
To date, Fleming is the only candidate to officially announce a primary challenge against Cassidy, although others could eventually follow.
John Couvillon, JMC Analytics founder and president, says Fleming’s standing among Republican voters greatly improved when they consider his background.
“A reading of Dr. Fleming’s biography widens his lead over Senator Cassidy,” says Couvillon.
Like Cassidy, Fleming is a medical doctor by trade.
Prior to becoming state treasurer, he served as deputy White House chief of staff during Donald Trump’s first presidency.
Couvillon says the fact that Cassidy will be participating in a closed primary for the first time could create significant headwinds for his re-election bid.
“It’s certainly a challenge that Dr. Cassidy has going into next year’s senate election is that rather than facing 100-percent of Louisiana voters, he’s going to be facing a smaller subset of Republicans and independents,” Couvillon says.
And as such, Couvillon says the primary electorate in April of 2026 will be much more conservative than in the open primaries that Cassidy had previously ran in.
“He has to be able to, according to the data, be able to reconnect with a much more conservative electorate,” says Couvillon, “because you’re talking about Republicans and independents, as opposed to everybody in Louisiana being able to weigh in on his re-election.”
Couvillon says this will be a hotly-contested primary, and the campaign will begin in earnest in a few months.
“With it being a statewide race, you can’t afford to wait until qualifying to start getting your message out there,” Couvillon says. “You’ve got to really start raising money and getting your message out, I would say, this summer and this fall.”
The poll of 600 likely Republican voters was conducted Deb. 24-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.
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