Sen. Bill Cassidy (L) and State Treasurer John Fleming
While one poll shows State Treasurer John Fleming beating Senator Bill Cassidy in next year’s Republican primary, the latest campaign finance report numbers tell a completely different story.
According to the official numbers released by the campaigns, Cassidy raised $1.36 million in the first quarter of 2025, compared to just over $263,000 for Fleming.
ULM Political Science Professor Pearson Cross says those numbers indicate that Fleming has his work cut out for him.
“It appears that Fleming is going to have some money to be in the race and may be competitive to some extent,” says Cross; “but unless his support broadens a bit, he’s going to have trouble matching Cassidy.”
Cross says the fundraising report is not a good sign for the state treasurer.
“Donations are also a measure of support,” Cross notes, “and right now it doesn’t look like Fleming has the kind of support overall that would indicate that he has a great chance in this race.”
Fleming is reporting a war chest of $2.2 million, much of which he loaned to himself, while Cassidy is reporting a war chest of $7.5 million.
“Although it is an accomplishment to raise over $250,000 in the first three months; at the same time, (Fleming is) going up against an opponent who’s been around for quite a while, who has a significant war chest of $7.5 million already raised and is raising money at a very fast rate — $1.3 million in the first quarter,” says Cross.
This will be the first Senate election cycle to use a closed primary, which is scheduled for one year from Friday.
With an electorate that skews much more to the right than in the previous jungle primaries, Cross says Fleming is hoping to capitalize on Cassidy’s vote in 2021 to convict then-former President Trump in his second impeachment trial.
“It remains to be seen how much that’s going to matter at the end,” says Cross, “but certainly it’s going to be a much closer race because of that change in state election procedures.”
Cassidy, meanwhile, is hoping that voters have a short memory.
“The Republican state party had a unanimous vote of censure against Senator Cassidy,” Cross notes. “But while I’d say those sins are not necessarily forgiven, they’re certainly farther away than they were in terms of people’s minds.”
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