On Thursday, NOAA announces its initial outlook for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season that starts June 1. State climatologist Barry Keim anticipates a forecast that leans towards an above normal season with the primary factor being the sea surface temps in the Atlantic.
“They’re running slightly warmer than normal across the tropical portion of the Atlantic and unfortunately the tropical portion of the Atlantic is the breeding grounds for the storms,” said Keim.
Keim says sea surface temps will be main factor because of the expectations of ENSO-neutral conditions, where it is expected there is neither an El Niño nor La Niña.
“It’s bad that we don’t have an El Niño, because El Niño’s actually create high levels of wind sheer over those breeding grounds which mitigates the number of storms, but it’s good that we do not have a La Niña which basically does the opposite,” said Keim.
A normal season is twelve named storms. Keim anticipates NOAA will call for a wide range of 10 to 16 named storms.
2020 has already seen the formation of Tropical Storm Arthur that has stayed offshore.
“We’re out of the gates a little early with one named storm, but that’s not a great predictor for what the rest of the season is going to do, so I don’t put too much stock in the fact that we’ve already had one,” said Keim.
Colorado State University’s most recent forecast calls for 16 named storms with eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
Comments