Researchers at Colorado State University are predicting another active Atlantic hurricane season for 2022, with 19 named storms. CSU Ph.D. candidate Alex DesRosiers said they are forecasting that nine of those named storms will develop into hurricanes of which four could be major.
“Those are hurricanes that reach Category 3 or higher intensity, which unfortunately Louisiana is no stranger to of late. The forecast of course does call for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, which no one likes to see,” said DesRosiers.
DesRosiers said one reason they are predicting another above-average season is that we are still currently in a weak La Nina pattern which plays a factor with wind shear.
“So that will drop down wind shear in the Atlantic Basin and that really gives an opportunity for tropical systems to get going and intensify,” said DesRosiers.
And DesRosiers said the chances that things will change to an El Nino pattern by hurricane season are exceedingly low.
Another similarity to last season, DesRosiers said is warm water temperatures in the Caribbean and also in the subtropical Atlantic. He said typically when you see warm waters in the subtropical Atlantic in April that leads to a warmer main development region in the peak season.
“But it’s always important to remember that regardless of the forecast even if it’s for a below-average season it really only takes one hurricane in your area to make it an active season for you,” said DesRosiers.
Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.
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