This GOES-16 East GeoColor satellite image taken Wednesday, Sept. 8, 2021, at 2:20 p.m. EDT, and provided by NOAA, shows Hurricane Larry in the Atlantic Ocean. The National Weather Service is warning that swells from Hurricane Larry will create dangerous rip current conditions. (NOAA via AP)
It’s only day two of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, but researchers at Colorado State University have increased their projections of just how active this season will be. Alex DesRosiers says the latest models point to 20 named storms. The main reason? El Nino, which helps prevent storms from forming, is highly unlikely this year.
“We’re not going to get the kind of environmental help we need to pick up wind shear and make the basin a bit more hostile to hurricanes, which we haven’t seen in quite some time,” he said.
DesRosiers says that CSU compares current conditions to years past and how that data aligns. They predicted 19 storms in June of 2020, a year that produced record highs in total storms and major hurricanes, with 30 and seven respectively. So what do the models see this year?
“It’s not totally unprecedented territory to have a forecast for 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, five major hurricanes,” he said. “Obviously we don’t want to see that realized, but that is what the data is telling us at this point in time.”
According to the CSU models, the odds of the Gulf Coast seeing a major hurricane passing through are at about 50 percent, up from 30 percent for the last century. As for Louisiana itself, DesRosiers says we should be prepared for an active season…
“The probability of a named storm passing within 50 miles of the Louisiana coast, that’s at 88 percent,” said DesRosiers. “A 61 percent chance of a hurricane passing within 50 miles and a 26 percent chance of a major hurricane.”
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