A recent poll for governor has Attorney General Jeff Landry leading with 29% followed by Shawn Wilson with 28%. JMC Analytics Veteran pollster John Couvillon said with Wilson as the only major Democrat in the race…
“He’s consolidated the Democratic support and he’s almost certainly assured a spot in the runoff and in fact I would not be surprised if he runs first in October,” said Couvillon.
And with Wilson running neck and neck with Landry, Couvillon said the question is how much traction can the remaining four Republican candidates make before the primary.
“What kind of head of steam can they build up to where they can get a sufficient amount of Republican support to be the one to face Shawn Wilson in the run-off,” said Couvillon.
The poll, conducted March 6-8, included Congressman Garret Graves, who was third with 12%. And with Graves out of the race, Couvillon believes his support would most likely be distributed geographically among the other Republican candidates. For example, in Baton Rouge, it would likely go to Stephen Waguespack because of name recognition.
“In the rest of the state I think that vote will scatter to the other candidates, or it may very well be undecided because they don’t yet have a strong second choice after Garret Graves,” said Couvillon.
And with Louisiana a majority red state, Couvillon said even if Wilson is the leader in October, he’ll have to court moderates and soft Republicans to claim victory in the runoff.
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