NOAA predicts a near-normal 2019 hurricane season. US weather officials say that means between 9 to 15 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. Lead hurricane season forecaster Gerry Bell says the near-normal hurricane outlook is occurring because of competing climate factors.
“An El Nino acts to increase wind-shear and suppress activity. Competing with El Nino is the ongoing Atlantic high activity era, so that is warmer temperatures, stronger West African monsoon and they favor more activity.”
Hurricane season officially begins June 1st.
Bell says the prediction is made with a 70 percent likelihood…
“That means we expect them to verify about 7 in 10 seasons and that is what we see.”
The other 30 percent leaves a chance for a stronger or weaker season to roll in.
Bell says do not expect any major hurricanes in June or July. Named storms may roll across the Atlantic in the early months of the season but Bell says anything like a category 3 hurricane won’t be on the way until peak months like August.
“Those are the systems that come from cloud systems moving westward from Africa. Those are the storms that very often can strengthen into hurricanes, major hurricanes and really control the overall hurricane season.”
Last year there were 15 named storms, highlighted by two major hurricanes, Florence and Michael.
