Saturday marks the start of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA predicts the season should be near-average. State Climatologist Barry Keim says the latest forecast that came out about a week ago calls for nine to fifteen named storms.
“The average is twelve, which is right down the middle of their forecasted range of named storms. Same thing holds true for hurricanes. They are predicting anywhere from four to eight hurricanes for this season. Six is the long term average,” said Keim.
The forecast calls for between two and four major hurricanes, which would be Category 3 or higher, with three being the long term average.
Keim says there are two contributing weather systems that are pointing toward an average season.
“With the El Nino which is mitigating the season and the warmer than normal seas surface temperatures and the enhanced West African monsoon, which favors more storm, you put it all together and it cancels each other out,” said Keim.
While the peak of hurricane season is typically in September, Keim still recommends having a plan and supplies ready now, as Louisiana is not immune to early season storms.
“We’ve had some bad hurricanes in the month of June. Hurricane Audrey in 1967 was a category 4 hurricane. It made landfall in southwestern Louisiana. It’s one of the earlier major hurricanes to make landfall in the United States,” said Keim.
Hurricane season takes place June 1 to November 30th.
