Colorado State University’s hurricane forecast team maintains its prediction of a well above-average hurricane season. Researcher Levi Silvers says the revised forecast anticipates 23 named storms, including 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
“We have confidence that we are heading into the peak of an overly active season, relative to the average,” Silvers said.
This outlook is influenced by the unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, which fuel storm development, and the current El Niño conditions. While El Niño typically suppresses hurricane activity, the impact is expected to be offset by the warmer waters.
“They are going to be moving over very, very warm waters, warmer than usual. That’s the primary reason we expect an overly active season,” Silvers explained.
The season has already produced four named storms, reinforcing the forecast’s accuracy. The CSU team emphasizes the importance of preparedness for coastal residents, given the heightened risk.
“The probability that you’re going to have in Louisiana impacts from a name storm, we have that at 79% right now. The probability of an impact from a hurricane in Louisiana is 51%.
Silvers says there’s a 20-percent chance Louisiana will see a major hurricane.
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