The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team is predicting a somewhat below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026. Average season is 14 named storms, CSU is predicting 13. Researcher Chandler Jenkins says a robust El Niño is the primary factor for their prediction of 13 named storms.
“With El Niño conditions, we expect stronger vertical wind shear through the Atlantic. These storms are very organized, they’re very up-and-down. They don’t like vertical wind shear,” Jenkins said.
Jenkins says the CSU team anticipates a moderate to strong Niño from August to October, which is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
“It could be a really, really strong El Niño. Again, increased vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and probably suppressing tropical cyclone activity here in the Atlantic,” Jenkins explained.
Jenkins says six of the 13 named storms they are predicting are expected to be hurricanes and they anticipate two major hurricanes.
“Temperatures in the Atlantic are still a little bit warmer than normal. And so, we are still expecting some hurricane forecast activity,” Jenkins said.
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