With qualifying in the books, campaigning is officially underway for the October 14th primary, and less than half of legislative candidates will have to hit the trail because they’re unopposed. But La-Politics-dot-com publisher Jeremy Alford said there are still plenty of competitive legislative races around the state.
“We’re looking at a potential turnover of one-third of the House and Senate next term, and that would be a noticeable mile marker in legislative history,” said Alford.
Alford said the one-third turnover was not anticipated to be that high for the legislature. He said if you look at those who are term-limited the turnover percentage would be much lower. Alford said several lawmakers have quit mid-term, who decided at the last minute not to run, and some are seeking other offices.
“And then there’s also kind of a subpopulation of lawmakers who just don’t like being in the capitol. They don’t like to politic; they don’t like animosity and everything that comes with it,” said Alford.
So, from a party perspective, Alford said Republicans are poised to dominate both chambers of the legislature. And after years of serious gains, he said it looks like the GOP is only going to build on that even further.
“They’re only a few seats away right now from a super-majority in both chambers. It’s almost a guarantee that they’re going to snag those extra seats during these regularly scheduled elections. The question is just how much,” said Alford.
And Alford said it depends on who’s elected governor and how that will factor in who becomes Speaker of the House and President of the Senate. For the last eight years, he said lawmakers have been working towards independence to elect their own leaders.
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