Early voting for the U.S. Senate runoff elections began today, with these races determining once and for all who will advance to the November general election.
If you tell that to a typical voter, the response you get might be one of surprise.
“I kind of doubt that they do know there’s an election coming up, and I expect the turnout to be very low as a result of that,” says ULM political science professor Pearson Cross.
The runoff is shaping up to be, to put it mildly, anticlimactic.
“The drama has left this race along with Bill Cassidy,” says Cross. “One was that Donald Trump had made a very publicized endorsement. The other was that the incumbent Republican senator’s seat was in danger. And both of those are now over.”
Cross says that lack of drama is leading to a sense of apathy in the runoff – at least on the Republican side.
“It’s clear that Trump’s endorsement did in Cassidy, at least with primary voters. So in this case, voter interest has probably ebbed a great deal.”
And apparently, so has campaigning activity.
“They don’t seem to be running around the state holding campaign events, (and) they’re not holding rallies,” Cross says. “There are still signs out there, but we haven’t seen much new activity since the initial round got over.”
In the GOP primary, Julia Letlow got by far the largest percentage of votes — 45-percent, compared to 28-percent for second-place finisher John Fleming.
That would mean Fleming would need nearly all of Bill Cassidy’s voters to move in his direction in order for him to have any chance of advancing to the general election.
“Letlow was within five points of outright victory,” Cross says, “so unless Fleming really gets a wave going, it is possible to assume the Letlow will then in fact pick up the additional points she needs.”
It’s the same story on the Democratic side, with Jamie Davis besting Gary Crockett, 47-percent to 26-percent.
Cross says the lack of drama in the runoff will likely carry over into the general election.
“No one really expects either Jamie Davis or Gary Crockett to be really competitive in the general election,” says Cross. “And neither one of these candidates is funded at the level that Julia Letlow or John Fleming are funded.”
The reason early voting starts today instead of tomorrow is that there will be no early voting next Friday because it’s Juneteenth, which is now a federal holiday. Early voting ends June 20th; election day is June 27th.
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